Whether to follow on and when are two different questions

Two outputs answering two different questions

The Scenario Engine returns a recommendation and a timing signal separately, and the separation is the point. Whether to put more money into a company and whether to do it in this round are different questions, and collapsing them into one answer loses the distinction a General Partner most needs.

You may want to invest more in a company while still needing clarity about this round’s terms or timing. Reading the outputs together helps separate those questions; neither should replace the GP’s assessment.

The recommendation

Four values, covering the company and the fund's ability to act on it.

• Yes

  The recorded inputs support following on within the model’s assessment. Review the allocation, constraints and any context the inputs do not capture.

• Maybe

  The assessment is mixed. The rationale shows the signals and constraints to examine before deciding.

• Wait

  The assessment points toward waiting. Read the timing signal and rationale to understand what needs review.

• No

  The assessment does not support following on, or a model constraint limits the allocation. The rationale distinguishes the reasons.

The suggested allocation is shown in dollars and as a share of the modeled pro-rata amount: the participation needed to maintain ownership under the scenario’s assumptions. Actual participation rights, dilution and access depend on the fund’s agreements and round terms. A suggestion is not a reserved allocation. Allocation calibration differs by lifecycle stage, so the same company inputs can produce different suggestions for different fund configurations. Those settings express the methodology’s assumptions; they do not establish an optimal investment amount.

The timing signal

The timing assessment uses the round’s stage and structure, the implied valuation step-up and proximity to a company milestone. It returns one of four signals.

• Now

  The recorded timing inputs favor acting now. Confirm the round deadline and any information outside the scenario before proceeding.

• Wait for a milestone

  A specific company milestone is close enough that its outcome would change the read.

• Wait for the next priced round

  The assessment favors reviewing the opportunity at the next priced round, when valuation and terms may provide more information.

• Reassess

  The timing inputs call for another review. This signal does not, by itself, reject the investment.

Waiting has a trade-off: more information may arrive, but the opportunity may close first. Check the signal against the actual timetable and what the fund expects to learn. The scenario cannot guarantee that a later allocation will be available.

When the inputs are thin

Sometimes the module cannot see enough to answer. A company with little mark history, or a round whose structure has not been settled, leaves parts of the picture blank. In that case the module says so rather than producing a confident-looking output from thin evidence. Where the timing picture specifically is unavailable but the rest of the evidence is intact, the recommendation still stands and the gap in the timing read is surfaced alongside it.

Before relying on the output, review both the inputs and any missing- data messages. A polished result should never stand in for information the fund does not have.

What these outputs are not

Neither output is a prediction about the company. The recommendation does not say the company will succeed, and a no does not say it will fail. Both are readings of the evidence available at the moment the scenario runs, against a fund in a specific position, and the module holds no view about what happens after the round closes.